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特朗普å°éƒµå¯„é¸ç¥¨éžå¸¸ä¸æ»¿ï¼Œè‡ªç„¶æœ‰ä»–的策略計算。但ä¸ç®¡ä»–怎樣計算,郵寄é¸ç¥¨ Vs 實體投票的影響,確是一個值得討論的å•題,因為ä¸å°‘æ½›è¦å‰‡æœƒéš¨ä¹‹æ”¹è®Šã€‚

å‡å¦‚ç–«æƒ…æœŸé–“ï¼Œé¦™æ¸¯ç‰¹å€æ”¿åºœä¸æ˜¯å–消立法會é¸èˆ‰ï¼Œè€Œæ˜¯è®“郵寄é¸ç¥¨å–代實體投票,å°çµæžœæœƒæœ‰ç”šéº¼å½±éŸ¿ï¼Ÿ

1.  åœ¨å¯¦é«”投票站,æ¯äººæŠ•票都是秘密的,沒有人知é“你投了誰。但在郵寄投票,很難控制你投票的éŽç¨‹ï¼Œæœ‰æ²’有其他人知é“。例如在è€äººé™¢ï¼Œå§‘娘å¯ä»¥å…¬ç„¶å»ºè­°è€äººå®¶æŠ•票,連掌心雷也çœå»ï¼›åœ¨å¤§åž‹ä¼æ¥­ï¼Œä¹Ÿå¯ä»¥åƒã€Œæ’國安法簽åã€é‚£æ¨£å‹•å“¡è·å“¡æŠ•票,而è·å“¡ç‚ºäº†è¡¨å¿ ï¼Œå¯èƒ½ä¸»å‹•亮票,令其他拒絕é€éœ²æŠ•給誰的åŒäº‹é¡¯å¾—「心有鬼ã€ã€‚美國é‡è¦–個人ç§éš±ï¼Œä¹Ÿä¸å®¹æ˜“完全æœçµ•這類å¯èƒ½æ€§ï¼Œä½•æ³(æ–°)香港?

2. ç¾Žåœ‹çš„éƒµå¯„æŠ•ç¥¨ï¼Œè¦æ±‚投票人在其中一個信å°ç°½å,é…åˆå®˜æ–¹çµ¦äºˆçš„bar codeï¼Œä»¤æ ¸å¯¦ç°½åæˆäº†ä¸€å¤§çˆ­è­°ï¼šå³ä½¿æ˜¯éŠ€è¡Œï¼Œè¦æ ¸å¯¦ç°½å也是專門學å•,å„地核實標準也å¯èƒ½é¬†ç·Šä¸ä¸€ã€‚美國一些州份開始讓機器核實,但ä¸èƒ½æŽ’除很多人ä¸ç¶“常簽å,會被機器無故判斷為廢票。å‡å¦‚判斷éŽåˆ†å¯¬é¬†ï¼ŒåŒä¸€åœ°å€çš„人很容易代其他人冒簽投票;å‡å¦‚éŽåˆ†åš´æ ¼ï¼Œå‰‡å¯èƒ½ä»¤å¾ˆå¤šäººè®Šç›¸å¤±åŽ»æŠ•ç¥¨æ¬Šã€‚å‡å¦‚在香港,冒èªè€äººå®¶ç°½åã€ä½¿ç”¨å…¶å€‹äººç¥¨çš„æ¡ˆä¾‹ï¼Œææ€•ä¸å°‘。

3. 傳統é¸èˆ‰éœ€è¦åœ¨åŒä¸€å¤©é€²è¡Œï¼Œæ˜¯å› ç‚ºè¦ç¢ºä¿æœ‰ä¸€å€‹åŠƒä¸€æ™‚é–“è¡¨ã€‚é ˆçŸ¥åŒä¸€å€‹å€™é¸äººçš„æ”¯æŒåº¦åœ¨ä¸€å€‹æ˜ŸæœŸä¹‹é–“,已經å¯ä»¥å¤§ä¸åŒã€‚有了「投票日ã€ï¼Œå„æ–¹éƒ½æœƒèˆ‰è¡Œé€ å‹¢æ™šæœƒæ‹‰ç¥¨ï¼Œå¸Œæœ›é æœ‹è¼©æ•ˆæ‡‰å‚¬å‡ºæ–°ç¥¨æºï¼Œä¹Ÿæœƒéƒ¨ç½²ä¸€äº›æœ€å¾Œé—œé ­çš„æ®ºè‘—;但郵寄é¸ç¥¨å‰‡æœƒæŠŠæŠ•票time-frame大幅度拉長,變相令é¸èˆ‰æ¨¡ç³Šäº†é—œéµæ—¥æœŸï¼Œé¸æ°‘的投票基準更多是長期å°è±¡ï¼Œé¸èˆ‰çš„短期行為會失去相å°åƒ¹å€¼ã€‚由於人類普é「討厭政治ã€ï¼Œæ²’有了大型亮麗拉票,ä¾ç„¶éƒµå¯„投票的,更多是已經被政治啟蒙的一群,å»ä¸å®¹æ˜“催出新票æºã€‚æ”¾äº†åœ¨é¦™æ¸¯ï¼Œè¦æ˜¯æ²’有激烈的é¸èˆ‰è¾¯è«–,很多人根本ä¸çŸ¥é“誰是候é¸äººï¼Œå°æ²’有強烈傾å‘的,就å¯èƒ½å¤±åŽ»æŠ•ç¥¨æ„æ¬²ã€‚

4. 郵寄éŽç¨‹ä¸­ï¼Œé›£å…出ç¾å¤±èª¤ã€‚å³ä½¿æ˜¯æˆ‘們平日寄信ã€å¯„åŒ…è£¹ï¼Œä¹Ÿæœ‰å¤±èª¤çš„ç¶“é©—ï¼Œé›–ç„¶æ¯”ä¾‹é€šå¸¸å¾ˆä½Žï¼Œä½†åœ¨é—œéµæ™‚刻,就變得關éµã€‚而且這是把ä¸å¯é€†æŠ—力å°é¸èˆ‰çš„å½±éŸ¿ï¼Œç”±é¸æ°‘æ˜¯å¦æŠ•ç¥¨çš„è²¬ä»»ï¼Œè½‰ç§»æˆéƒµæ”¿æœå‹™èƒ½å¦é”標的責任:以香港回歸後第一屆立法會é¸èˆ‰ç‚ºä¾‹ï¼Œç•¶æ—¥è¶…ç´šèª‡å¼µçš„å‚¾ç›†å¤§é›¨ï¼Œä½†æŠ•ç¥¨çŽ‡å‰µæ–°é«˜ï¼Œå¤§é›¨ä¸‹æ˜¯å¦æŠ•ç¥¨ï¼Œå°±æ˜¯é¸æ°‘的決定;但å‡å¦‚變æˆéƒµå¯„ï¼Œå› ç‚ºå¤©æ°£åŽŸå› å»¶èª¤ï¼Œåˆæœƒå‡ºç¾çˆ­è­°ã€‚

åŒæ¨£æƒ…æ³ï¼Œæ›´æœƒç™¼ç”Ÿåœ¨æ—©æ™šæœƒå‡ºç¾çš„é›»å­æŠ•ç¥¨èº«ä¸Šï¼Œé€™æ˜¯å¦ä¸€èª²é¡Œï¼Œä¸è´…。å•題是疫情之下,無論哪種contingency planï¼Œéƒ½ä¸æœƒæ˜¯é›¶çˆ­è­°ã€‚è‡³æ–¼çˆ­è­°é»žçš„å½±éŸ¿æœ‰å¤šå¤§ï¼Œæ€Žæ¨£å„˜é‡æœçµ•æ¼æ´žï¼Œåªèƒ½æ˜¯æ”¿åºœçš„責任。但政府或傳統建制失去絕å°å…¬ä¿¡åŠ›ï¼Œè‡ªç„¶ä»»ä½•çˆ­è­°ï¼Œéƒ½æœƒå¾¹åº•æ’•è£‚ç¤¾æœƒã€‚é¦™æ¸¯å¦‚æ˜¯ï¼Œçœ‹ä¾†ç¾Žåœ‹äº¦å¦‚æ˜¯ã€‚

Comments

Which era do you live in? Postal vote is very common, I had an American colleague who voted for Hilary Clinton back in 2008 when she worked in Republic of Ireland. I myself always use postal vote. Postal vote (and in the future digital vote) has been going on for years, why questioning it now? Because you don't like the results (which to be honest isn't that great for Democrats anyway). Claiming you fight for democracy but turn against the system when the results do not suit you? Democracy is not just a ballot paper, it relies on active participation of educated public. The US has just shown us how miserably it can fail.

Christie Leung

真的沒有留æ„åˆ°éƒµéžæŠ•éƒµå…¶å¯¦çœŸçš„å¾ˆæœ‰å•題ï¼å°¤å…¶æ˜¯åœ¨ä¿å¯†åŠé˜²æ­¢ç¨®ç¥¨æ–¹é¢ï¼ï¼ï¼ é¦™æ¸¯çš„è©±â‹¯è«—èµ·éƒ½ææ€–ï¼è€äººé™¢ã€ä¸­è³‡å…¬å¸â‹¯â‹¯

Joey

Thru all this, I found that I'm very tolerant of the sometimes slow and cumbersome process because I do trust the system. As cliche as it sounds, democracy is messy because you don't just blindly let one person dictate everything. Checks and balances are messy. But people's trust in the system makes them patient and tolerant of this messiness.

kate

To give a local data point: I'm an overseas Clark County, Nevada voter. 1) Any US citizen from anywhere in the world can vote thru mail ballot. Therefore the early proposal from HK govt to give special voting avenue for HKers living in Greater Bay Area makes no sense. Either all or no overseas. 2) Some states like Nevada already accept email ballot. But definitely not a perfect process: a) Nevada supposedly sent a mail ballot this year to everyone. I never received one even though I checked my overseas address many times. b) It took me filling in 3 online forms/ emails to finally get a response from someone about getting my ballot. c) The process is very manual - I actually emailed back and forth with someone at the local county 2-3 times before I finally received my electronic ballot. I still need to fill it in, print it out, sign it manually, scan it, and email it back! d) Privacy - because I chose email, I had to sign away my rights to anonymous vote.

kate

投比åTRUMP

Yu Yu

我覺得一旦郵寄é¸ç¥¨éŽå¤šæ™‚,會出ç¾åŽŸå‰‡æ€§åŒç³»çµ±æ€§å•題,但å„州都沒有處ç†ï¼Œåˆ°ç•¶æ—¥ä¹Ÿè™•ç†ä¸å¥½ã€‚ 你們既解釋就åƒ08年雷曼倒閉å‰ï¼Œæ¯ä¸€å€‹äººéƒ½è©±CDS沒有å•題。å•題é‡é»žæ˜¯ä½ å€‘沒有考慮éŽå¤§éŽå¤šçš„æƒ…æ³ä¸‹ï¼Œå¯èƒ½ç™¼ç”Ÿçš„事。

12345

é²ä¸‹å¯èƒ½æ”¿åºœåˆæœƒè©±å…§åœ°åœ°å¤§ç‰©åšï¼Œè€Œä¸”å¤§éƒ¨åˆ†é¸æ°‘ä¿‚è€äººå®¶è¡Œå‹•å””æ–¹ä¾¿ï¼Œæ–¹ä¾¿ä½¢åœ°æ•´å€‹éƒµéžæŠ•ç¥¨å‡ºä¾†ï¼Œä½ æ‡‚çš„ã€‚ä¸éŽå°±ç®—ç„¡éƒµéžæŠ•ç¥¨ï¼Œå¯èƒ½é¸èˆ‰æ—¥æžå€‹åŸŽå¸‚一日éŠï¼Œè»Šæ›¬d鏿°‘去城市食完後投票,之後大家識åšã€‚

拜登é¢ç›®åŠæ–½æ”¿ä¸»å¼µéƒ½æ¨¡ç³Šï¼Œç¾Žåœ‹é¸æ°‘å¯èƒ½ä¸æ˜¯æŠ•票給他,是投票給民主黨ï¼

Chan Wai Bun

若如 張崑陽 帖å­ä»¥ã€Œè¡Œæ”¿æ•ˆçŽ‡ã€æ‰€è‡´è€Œåˆç†åŒ–äº†ï¼Œç›¸ä¿¡å°‡ä¸æœƒæœ‰ä»»ä½•修正和改善。 䏿˜Žç™½ç‚ºä½•ä¸åŽ»å µå¡žï¼Œä¸èƒ½ç¢ºä¿é¸ç¥¨çš„åˆæ³•性,é¸èˆ‰åˆæœ‰ä»€éº¼æ„æ€? 明白特朗普為何åå° éƒµå¯„æŠ•ç¥¨ï¼Œ 此舉是ä¿éšœæ‰€æœ‰å€™é¸äººã€‚

miuying yu

如果俾人由大陸郵寄投票,仲多左個好處- 唔會俾內地人見到香港人有é¸èˆ‰

katrina

特朗普在末é¸å‰å·²ç¶“話defund postal service。 ç¶“åœ‹æœƒå§”å“¡æœƒè¨Žè«–ï¼Œéƒµæ”¿å±€ä¿æ­£å¯ä»¥è™•ç†æ‰€æœ‰é¸ç¥¨ã€‚之於特朗普æä¸ƒé»žå¾Œéƒµå¯„é¸ç¥¨ä½œå»¢ã€‚但æ¯å¹´å››æœˆå五郵寄交稅,亦以郵戳日期為準。所以ä¸åˆé‚輯

Eric lin

特朗普話佢多次講éŽéƒµå¯„有å•題,å¯ä»¥æ‹¿å‡ºä¾†åˆ†æžä¸€ä¸‹å‘¢ï¼Ÿ

12345

Prof Shen, thank you for your always excellent writing, I do feel your kindness and your own intellectual humbleness and nuance may not serve some subsets of your readers well. It is indeed true that since voting is handled by states, there has been issues for as long as people can remember. But as it relates to absentee/mail in ballots, there is just no empirical evidence to support any type of the "theories" that's out there in the US. in fact as you know, Oregon is entirely vote by mail and has been for some time. I think your point is especially important in how politically aware the general population is, the shenanigans that can and have happened in HK is not translatable to US as far as we have evidence for thus far. Since even other opinion journalists rely on your analysis, this is something that may dismay a lot of your readers but would be critically important in the conversation. Just my thoughts.

Wis

(新)香港

Tak Wong

以後中xxä¸éœ€è¦å†çµ±ç±Œé…票,二三佰è¬éƒµå¯„票å¯è¼•易全å–立法會七å度。雷廷動原黃ð¢‡ä½œç”¨ä¹Ÿä¸å¤§ã€‚

CCT Lai

最尾的亮點

44yen


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